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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 57

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:39) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 47 yards to GB 10, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.98 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT +0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 17, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model