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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 85

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:17) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 38 yards to MIN 47, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-84-J.Abbrederis.

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.30 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 85, worth -5.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 43, worth -2.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model