Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 58

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Green Bay Packers 14

(10:39) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 43 yards to GB 15, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.75 EP
71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model