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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 14

Green Bay Packers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(5:04) (Shotgun) 44-J.Starks left guard to MIN 13 for 1 yard (98-L.Joseph; 96-B.Robison).

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.10 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model