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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 51

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:40) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 37 yards to GB 14, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.19 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model