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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 67

Green Bay Packers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(13:09) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 44 yards to MIN 23, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.60 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP