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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 28

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(:31) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.77 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model