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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 47

Green Bay Packers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(4:48) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 34 yards to MIN 13, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.43 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model