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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 23

Baltimore Ravens 22 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(2:57) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.86 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model