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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 31

Baltimore Ravens 19 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(11:23) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.53 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 31, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 41, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model