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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 58

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to TB 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.88 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP