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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 16

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 3-M.Bryant 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.75 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model