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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 72

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

What Actually Happened

(1:17) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Tamme (93-G.McCoy).

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.18 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 72, worth -1.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 30, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model