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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 11

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.01 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model