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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 88

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(10:02) 9-B.Anger punts 57 yards to ATL 31, Center-48-A.DePaola. 14-E.Weems to ATL 40 for 9 yards (53-A.Glanton).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.83 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 88, worth -5.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.53 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model