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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to ATL 15, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 25, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP