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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 50

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

What Actually Happened

(3:48) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 83-J.Tamme to TB 40 for 10 yards (58-K.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.99 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model