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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 20 at the 50

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 5-M.Bosher punts 35 yards to TB 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries. PENALTY on TB-50-J.Keyes, Unnecessary Roughness, 7 yards, enforced at TB 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.04 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model