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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 16

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 3-M.Bryant 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model