Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 91

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

(5:08) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to ATL 39, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.49 EP
61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 91, worth -5.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model