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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 72

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 5-M.Bosher punts 34 yards to TB 38, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.94 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP