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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 29

New England Patriots 7 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.11 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model