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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 47

Arizona Cardinals 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 2-D.Butler punts 39 yards to NE 8, Center-86-K.Canaday, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.54 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model