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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 29

Arizona Cardinals 21 – New England Patriots 23

What Actually Happened

(:41) 7-C.Catanzaro 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-86-K.Canaday, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.35 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 29, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.60 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model