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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 14

New England Patriots 20 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.81 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 14, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP