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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 56

Arizona Cardinals 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:59) 2-D.Butler punts 38 yards to NE 18, Center-86-K.Canaday. 80-D.Amendola to NE 26 for 8 yards (20-D.Bucannon).

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.21 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 56, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model