4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 39

Arizona Cardinals 0 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(12:30) 2-D.Butler punts 23 yards to NE 16, Center-86-K.Canaday, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.18 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model