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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 18 at the 19

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(12:18) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.34 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 19, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model