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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 12

Minnesota Vikings 22 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(2:41) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.07 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model