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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 20 at the 95

Tennessee Titans 10 – Minnesota Vikings 22

What Actually Happened

(7:22) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 64 yards to MIN 31, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 43 for 12 yards (47-A.Blake; 50-N.Palmer).

The Three Options

GO -4.00 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.24 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 95, worth -5.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -2.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 53, worth -2.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model