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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 27

Minnesota Vikings 12 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(11:22) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.37 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model