Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 10 – Minnesota Vikings 12

What Actually Happened

(:35) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to MIN 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 22 for -2 yards. Lateral to 84-C.Patterson to MIN 31 for 9 yards (59-W.Woodyard).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 76, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model