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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 36

Tennessee Titans 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(10:35) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.61 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model