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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 15

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(6:04) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.10 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP