4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 73

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to SF 23, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.10 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model