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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 61

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to LA 9, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.41 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 20, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP