Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 82

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 0

(4:07) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to LA 34, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin pushed ob at SF 38 for 28 yards (29-J.Tartt).

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.20 EP
63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 82, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model