Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 79

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to LA 27, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 35 for 8 yards (29-J.Tartt). PENALTY on LA-59-J.Forrest, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.23 EP
61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 79, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model