Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 55

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 14

(11:16) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to SF 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.75 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model