Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 77

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 0

(1:16) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to LA 37, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 39 for 2 yards (13-A.Burbridge).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.15 EP
61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 77, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model