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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 46

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to SF 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.94 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model