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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 69

Green Bay Packers 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 10-J.Schum punts 48 yards to JAX 21, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 27, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model