Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 61

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

(6:06) 3-B.Nortman punts 58 yards to GB 3, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-25-P.Thompson.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.00 EP
72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model