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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 38

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(7:29) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 15-A.Robinson to GB 29 for 9 yards (36-L.Gunter).

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.07 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model