Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q1
Green Bay Packers
4th & 1 at the 20
Green Bay Packers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0
What Actually Happened
(10:51) 27-E.Lacy up the middle to JAX 11 for 9 yards (39-T.Gipson).
The Three Options
GO
+2.64 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.62 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 20, worth -0.98 EP
KICK
+1.32 EP
- 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
- 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT
-0.35 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
