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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 7

Green Bay Packers 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 2-M.Crosby 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 7, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model