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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 56

Houston Texans 23 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 9-S.Lechler punts 35 yards to CHI 21, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.19 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 56, worth -1.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP