Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 76

Chicago Bears 14 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to HOU 32, Center-48-P.Scales. 34-T.Ervin pushed ob at HOU 39 for 7 yards (52-C.Jones). PENALTY on HOU-45-J.Prosch, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 39. Penalty on HOU-35-E.Pleasant, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.42 EP
70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model