Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 64

Chicago Bears 14 – Houston Texans 20

(9:10) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to HOU 21, Center-48-P.Scales. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 34 for 13 yards (52-C.Jones; 58-J.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.59 EP
74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model