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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 38

Chicago Bears 14 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(7:50) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 29 yards to HOU 9, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.66 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.88 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP